By
Eriko Amaha and Thomas Kutty Abraham TOKYO/BOMBAY - Motofumi Okuma,
who manages a 110 billion yen ($990 million) India fund at Nomura
Asset Management Co. Ltd. in Tokyo, has a luxury problem. Before
its launch on June 22 the fund was quickly swamped with so much
money that in order for the fund not to disturb the India market,
it had to halt sales a day later. The India retail funds boom in
Japan has added to concerns about a foreign-funded bubble in Bombay.
"If money from Japan grows rapidly, it would create a situation
in which Japanese money pushes India stock prices higher. That would
make my life difficult," said Okuma. India is poised to grow
at nearly 7 percent in the current year to March, roughly unchanged
from last year and down from 8.5 percent in 2003/04. But the pace
of inflows is rising. So far this year, global institutional investment
in equities has hit $6.9 billion, compared with $8.5 billion for
the whole of 2004. India equity investment funds kicked off in Japan
in September. By the end of July they were worth 445.3 billion yen.
Analysts say the pace of investment flows will probably slow, topping
out at around 500 billion yen by the end of this year.
Yasushi Aoki, senior manager at Fidelity Investments Japan's investment
marketing department, says Japanese investors are in for the long
haul. "This is not a passing fad. India will be, for Japanese
investors, a core market to invest in." BUBBLE CONTROL Indian
analysts say foreign fund buying is largely behind strength in the
Bombay Stock Exchange index over the last two years. The benchmark
index has risen more than 17 percent so far in 2005, the fourth
best in Asia behind a near 40 percent surge in Colombo, and gains
of around a fifth in Seoul and Karachi.
With little to excite them at home, where interest rates are near
zero and the Nikkei average has gained a paltry 2.4 percent in 2005,
Japanese retail investors will stay focused on growth markets such
as India and China, analysts said. Kirby Daley, strategist at Societe
Generale Securities Fimat division in Tokyo said the rapid development
of the Indian market and economy make a compelling investment story.
"If the level of growth and the integrity of the markets can
be maintained, investors should be happy," he said. PCA Asset
Management Ltd, which has garnered about 50 billion yen for its
India fund, said it was wary of Japanese demand inflating a bubble.
"We could pick India stocks with fair valuations if our investment
amount stays at a few hundred million yen a day. But if the amount
were to grow 10 times, it would be tough to handle with the current
market levels. We would have to buy overvalued stocks," said
Yosuke Takahashi, director of marketing communications and strategic
PR at PCA Asset in Japan.
Atsuji Ohara, global strategist at Shinko Securities in Tokyo,
said with the summer bonus season over and the vacation season underway
brokers may temper their marketing efforts. FOREIGN FUEL Foreign
investment has pushed Indian stocks to a 12-month forward price-to-earnings
ratio (PE) of nearly 15, as measured by the MSCI India index, a
benchmark by foreign investors. That compared with a PE ratio of
11.5 in China's H shares and 14 in Shanghai Index 50, according
to Ohara of Shinko Securities. Japan's Nikkei PE ratio stands at
around 17. The index has risen by nearly 15 percent so far in 2005.
"With the Indian market hitting new highs, valuations are
not as attractive as a year ago," said Vijay Tohani of First
State Regional India Fund in Bombay. But foreign inflows into India,
a high-risk target for global investors, were probably more susceptible
to a downturn in global growth, which would sour risk appetite,
than worried about high Indian valuations, he wrote in a recent
report. Japan's infatuation with India follows similar interest
in China. There were 70 China funds in Japan last September with
outstanding assets hitting a peak of 740 billion yen. Some investors,
worried by anti-Japan protests in China this spring, sold out, pushing
that number down to 568 billion yen by the end of July, but the
number of funds had grown to 76. Though China's stock markets are
the worst performing in Asia in 2005 -- the Shanghai composite index
is the only Asian benchmark in negative territory -- the MSCI China
index is up more than 12 percent this year.
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