India's
premier stock market, which has been hitting successive record highs,
is on a roll and not even the worst-recorded floods to strike the
nation's financial capital Mumbai is going to stop it, analysts
say.
The Mumbai stock exchange's 30-share benchmark Sensex index has
risen 16 percent this calendar year to 7,754 from 6,679.2 after
rising 13 percent in 2004.
"We have to look at the long-term prospects. Economic growth
for India is in line with expectations. A short-term crisis...is
not likely to alter this," said Kavita Hurry, chief executive
officer and managing director of ING Vysya mutual fund.
"We are witnessing a scenario seen by the US markets in the
early 1990s -- of strong liquidity, backed by promising growth.
Within the emerging markets basket, India is still an attractive
buy," she said.
The Sensex even hit new highs during the unprecedented seven days
of heavy rain that turned Mumbai's teeming streets into rivers and
killed close to 450 people.
The Sensex gained 203.24 points during the deluge which ended last
Tuesday.
Analysts say that is because India is still on a strong growth
trajectory and that natural disasters which frequently plague the
country are not going to knock it off course.
"The markets look at economic strengths and weigh them against
expected losses. The key issue is that manufacturing establishments
across the state (and some in Mumbai) have not been impacted in
a major way (by the rains)," said Shitin Desai, executive vice-chairman
of global investment bank DSP-Merrill Lynch.
The Reserve Bank of India at the end of July forecast seven percent
economic growth for the financial year ending March 2006 in line
with estimates by the country's finance ministry.
There are fears that agricultural growth could be hit by the rains
which affected wide swathes of Maharashtra, home to Mumbai. Maharashtra
is a key farming state in India, especially for cash crops such
as sugar and oilseeds.
But the impact of such damage to agriculture on overall growth
could be limited if industry and the services sector continue to
grow strongly, analysts say.
Latest finance ministry figures showed industrial production jumped
by 9.6 percent in May from the previous month, aided by 10.5 percent
growth in manufacturing output.
"In the floods aftermath, basic and capital goods factories
appear not to have been impacted in a major way," Desai said.
Strong overseas fund buying held up throughout the downpour and
corporate India's first-quarter earnings performance has been impressive,
dealers say.
Overseas funds have already plowed 6.99 billion dollars into Indian
stocks this calendar year, up from 3.82 billion dollars for the
same period last year.
"The markets will look at liquidity and this is strong. The
buying momentum is intact, even though there could be corrective
spells of profit-taking at higher levels," said a dealer at
domestic brokerage Crosseas Securities.
"We have to understand that economic factors will outway other
related issues," said R. Balakrishnan, chief executive officer
of Parellex Consultancy Services, an investment advisory firm.
"Barring concern over the financial health of oil companies,
I do not see any hiccups looking at first-quarter corporate earnings,"
he said.
India's central bank Governor Y.V. Reddy expressed similar confidence
late last month.
"It is apparent that there are several global uncertainties,
but there are domestic factors which indicate a confidently growing
economy," he said.
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